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DArtagnan (unofficial Mayor of the Forum) Master Mongerer UID 12884 Digest Posts 0 Credits 5034 Posts 4392 Karma 4928 Acceptance 2111 Reading Access 80 Registered 10-7-2008 Location Pitcairn Status Offline

#21 Post at 10-8-2009 09:57  Profile P.M.  Font size: S M L Reply #12 simplytheguest's post I THINK what you mean is there are two possible outcomes - you catch it, or you don't. That's not how most people talk about 50/50 though.  Most people talk about 50/50 like tossing a coin: i.e. if you flip it (say) 100 times, you will get both heads and tails in roughly equal proportions, and the more times you flip it the closer the proportion will be.   But if I understand your point, you are saying that the probability of the outcome is only part of the process of making a decision - which I agree.  The consequences of the outcome are also important.  Downside and upside can make even a long shot worth taking, or a dead cert best to avoid.   BTW thx for the backhanded compliment ... Hear Ye!  The Mayor has spoken!

Marsupial (Saint Marsupial) Throbbing Titan UID 2909 Digest Posts 0 Credits 3497 Posts 3164 Karma 3478 Acceptance 370 Reading Access 70 Registered 18-8-2007 Location Lost in Space Status Offline

#22 Post at 10-8-2009 11:59  Profile P.M.  Font size: S M L Reply #21 DArtagnan's post That was very well put DArtagnan. So yes, like everything else in life, you must weigh the likelihood that something will or will not happen against the inconvenience or lost pleasure from not doing it. Should you give up a two week holiday sampling the pleasures of Thailand because the plane might go down in the South China Sea? It's true the plane either will or will not suffer some kind of mechanical failure, and the consequences of that happening would be fatal, but how many would think the risk too great to hazard the trip? [ Last edited by  Marsupial at 11-8-2009 08:30 ] 孔子曰： 君子不羞于舔屄也

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